In early November, during the Texas Book Festival, I ran into Mark Weston. Upon hearing he’d written a book on Saudi Arabia, I was immediately intrigued. I became more intrigued when I heard his slant on the country. Rather than following the well-worn path of trashing the kingdom for its backwardness and its support for fundamentalist Islam, Weston had a nuanced view of the Saudis and their role in the modern world.

Upon receiving a copy of his book, I was further impressed by the remarkable amount of research he had done and by his fair-minded approach. In the introduction to Prophets and Princes, he spells out his view, writing that “A balanced view of Saudi Arabia is vital if Americans are to avoid more of the miscalculations that so often lead to violence in the Middle East. The kingdom’s duality needs to be acknowledged and explored, but many recent books about the kingdom have been polemics. In fact, since 2001, it has been open season on Saudi Arabia in newspapers, magazines, and especially in books…”

He goes on saying that “The Middle East dominates the news almost every day, yet only 7% of Americans claim to have any knowledge of Islam’s core beliefs. Few Americans realize that Muslims revere Genesis, Exodus, Pslams, and even parts of the Gospels as holy scripture and honor Noah, Abraham, Moses, and Jesus as prophets of God. It is news to most Americans that Muslims believe in the virgin birth, miracles, and the resurrection of Jesus (for there is no miracle, Muslims say, that Allah cannot perform).”

Another quote from the introduction is relevant, particularly given the recent attempt by the deranged Nigerian, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, to blow up an airliner bound for Detroit. Weston says that “America’s enemy is terrorism, not Islam. Second, the growth of terrorism has shown that it is not possible to understand the twenty-first century without knowing something about the seventh century, the period when Muhammad began the spread of Islam.” And Weston provides an excellent primer on the seventh century, Islam, and Muhammad, in the very first chapter of Prophets and Princes. I exchanged emails with him earlier this month.

RB: Since September 11, 2001, lots of US politicians, journalists,and pundits, on both the Right and the Left, have been demonizing Saudi Arabia. But during our recent phone conversation, you said that “Most Americans also don’t realize how much Saudi Arabia has changed since September 10, 2001.” How has it changed?

MW: Since 9/11, Saudi Arabia has killed more than 150 terrorists and captured 1,000 more, shared information with the FBI and CIA,stopped all Saudi charities from sending money abroad, fired or retired more than 1,300 militant clerics, and replaced millions of school textbooks that had contained hostile references to Christians and Jews. The government has also created a human rights commission. While it’s powerless, it does make policemen pause before committing abuses, and there are many fewer of them than there used to be. The press is also freer than it used to be. It can’t criticize the royal family directly, but it can and does discuss social issues in depth.

RB: What do you see as America’s biggest misconception about Saudis and Saudi Arabia?

MW: When I first arrived in Saudi Arabia in 2004, I was expecting to see a religious policeman with a bullwhip on every street corner. Instead the country is people going to work and raising kids like anywhere else.

Women lack many rights, but they are getting college educations. 60% of the students in college in Saudi Arabia today are women, so it is not like Afghanistan at all. Also, the country is genuinely our ally. The Saudi
government pumps more oil when a jittery market really needs it, such as right after 9/11 or right before the invasion of Iraq, and it has been a huge help in the struggle against terror. Recently, we’ve heard that al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia and al-Qaeda in Yemen merged. It would be more accurate to say that the Saudi police eradicated al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia, and the remnants moved to Yemen.

RB: We also discussed the fact that Saudi Arabia still is, in some ways, stuck in the Dark Ages. Is the country modernizing fast enough? What is preventing it from coming into the modern era, particularly with regard to women’s rights?

MW: No, Saudi Arabia is not modernizing fast enough, even though many Saudis no doubt feel they are modernizing too swiftly. The government continues to spend 25% of its budget on education and vocational training. Even as oil revenues have risen, the government has maintained that percentage. But education takes time. The government has done a superb job educating women, and a lackluster job finding women work.

Women also need custody of their children after a divorce, and of course, they need to drive. One of the things that slows Saudi Arabia down is that it is a consensus society. Recently our House of Representatives passed a health care bill by a vote of 220-215. The Saudis would never, never make an important decision by such a narrow margin. Probably women won’t drive until three-fourths of the men approve. It is possible, however, that a more limited reform allowing women over 35 to drive until 7 or 8 pm could be approved much sooner.

RB: Your book, which has been out since mid-2008, has been completely ignored by the mainstream media. Of course, every author wants more attention. But why do you think your book has gotten so little press?

MW: I’ve written books about Pakistan and Japan, but I’m not a reporter for the New York Times or a professor at Harvard, so I don’t have a reputation. And I didn’t trash the royal family, which is an easy way to get attention. Also, even though in my introduction I said that a non-fiction book is a buffet, and people should only read what they want, a lot of people are too busy to even start a 550-page book. I do wish more people had at least read my introduction and conclusion, and the parts of the book that cover the kingdom since 9/11.

RB: During my visit to Saudi Arabia in 2006, I was intrigued by the number of Saudis who wanted to talk about the Palestinians. When we spoke you said that the current Saudi government is “as moderate as an Arab government will be unless or until the Israelis and the Palestinians make peace.” Why are the Palestinians such a durable and emotional symbol for the Saudis and others in the Arab world?

MW: Imagine how Americans would feel if foreigners took New Jersey and Delaware and formed a new nation there. I do believe that after 60 years, Israel has a right to exist there, but hatred runs high. Also, the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem is the third holiest site in Islam. It needs to be transferred to the United Nations, just as the UN in Manhattan is not part of the United States, the al-Aqsa mosque should not be under Israeli occupation.

RB: Let’s talk about oil. Houston investment banker Matthew Simmons got a lot of attention for his claims that the Saudis had reached the peak of their ability to produce oil. You spend a fair number of pages in the book pointing out that the Saudis have far more oil reserves than they are claiming. Why has Simmons gotten so much traction in the media? And has the controversy that Simmons created been good for the Saudis by forcing them to be more open?

MW: Simmons rightly points out that in the Middle East, oil reserves are state secrets. In truth, we don’t know how much or how little oil each nation has. A lot of Saudi fields are more than 50 years old and might age fast. On the other hand, most people feel that Aramco is a deeply professional oil company that knows what its doing, and that “probable reserves,” as opposed to “proven reserves,” are considerable. I read Simmons book expecting it to be trash, but was deeply impressed by his arguments. Not convinced, but impressed. He has raised important issues. I’m not sure he has made the Saudis more open. I wish, as Simmons suggests, the Saudis would issue field-by-field reserves figures.

RB: In your conclusion, you mention something I noticed when I was in the country: that is, the large number of unemployed men. You wrote that “Today, half of the Saudi people are under twenty. In just ten years, 2.5 million Saudi men will reach adulthood and need jobs and housing, and hundreds of thousands of women will need jobs, too….The probability that Saudi Arabia’s population will increase 50 to 70 percent in the next twenty years is a much greater threat to the country’s stability and well-being than the slim possibility of an Iranian nuclear strike.” So what should the Saudi leadership be doing to address this looming surge in population? And are they doing enough?

MW: Do you know what you call parents who don’t talk to their kids about birth control? Grandparents. The Saudis need to reduce the rate of their population growth, and it won’t happen without birth control. Conservatives will probably prevent even the discussion of such matters.
Fortunately, around the world, educated women have taken birth control and reduced growth. The fact that Saudi women are so well-educated now is a hopeful sign.

RB: You spent years researching and writing this book. What has happened in Saudi Arabia since you finished it? And what do you expect to see in the next few years?

MW: The pace of reform has definitely slowed since 2008. Not stopped, but slowed. It looks like a conservative, Prince Nayef, may be the next king, but even his government will still spend 25% of its budget on education and vocational training. The royal family is stable and secure for at least a quarter century, and for much longer if they move toward becoming
constitutional monarchs. In the long run, the real question is whether the Saudi people can become educated enough and skilled enough to compete in the world economy 50 or 60 years from now when their oil runs out. It’s a 50-50 proposition.

When Anthony Cordesman, who may know more about the Middle East than any other man or woman alive, runs through scenarios, the most likely outcome is rarely utopia or disaster, but “muddling through.”

Original file here: http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=2897