Energy Tribune
Not Driving Drives Oil Prices Downward
If you are looking for a reason why oil demand and oil prices are so lackluster, consider this: US drivers are staying home, and they are doing so in record numbers.
According to the latest data from the Federal Highway Administration, the number of miles traveled in November 2008 fell by 5.3 percent compared to the year-earlier month. As noted by blogger Mark J. Perry this is the thirteenth consecutive month that traffic volume has declined. And Perry notes, this change “represents one of the most significant adjustments to driving behavior in American history.”
Furthermore, the decline in traffic volume over the 12-month period ending November 2008, is the biggest annual decline recorded since the federal government began collecting data in 1971.The 5.3 percent decrease in driving correlates pretty well with the decline in crude oil being run through US refineries. According to the latest data from the EIA, the four-week average for crude inputs in refiners was 14.36 million barrels, a decline of 6.3 percent from January 2008. That decline has come alongside decreasing demand for gasoline, propane, and middle distillates.
Perhaps more important for oil prices in the near term is this: the trend line in oil consumption points downward. Sure, oil prices may rally in the next few months, but it doesn’t appear that the rally will be sparked by increased US demand. American drivers appear to be perfectly happy staying home.